Researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank suggests a rising chance of a recession through the end of the year and into early next year. The risk of recession recedes after the second half of 2012, they found.
“A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession,” wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda in the latest San Francisco Fed Economic Letter. “However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.